I will be very brief here. I watched both of the 2016 U.S. Republican primary debates on CNN on Wednesday, September 16, 2015.
The first debate, featuring Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Jon Gilmore, and George Pataki, was more substantive and more revealing, in some ways. What did it reveal? Graham knows the demographic challenges of the GOP and he knows the chances of the GOP winning in 2016 are low if young people, single women, and people of color come out in the same numbers that they did in 2008. Graham’s responses were the most rooted in reality. This is scary because his comments were only loosely rooted in reality. It’s all relative when your talking about the GOP. However, No one candidate from the first debate has any real chance of becoming president. Also: Bobby Jindal said he was more angry at his party then the Democratic party. It’s become a truism that the left is divided and this is why it loses. However, ever since we saw the rise of the Tea Party wing of the GOP, we are totally seeing a deep fracture opening up full of infighting. Jindal embodies this divide in everything he says. Speaking of divide? Trump.
The second debate featured eleven candidates; too many to name them all right here because I promised myself – and you the reader – that this will be very brief. After a couple days of reflecting, here is who I think did the best and who did the worst.
I posted this on Facebook even before the debate was over:
“Who will gain in the polls? Fiorina, Christie, Kasich, Trump annnnnd maybe Rubio.
Who will lose? Jeb, Jeb, Jeb, Jeb, Carson
Who? Huckabee, Rand, Cruz, Walker.”
It looks like the consensus is that Fiorina won the debate and Jeb, Walker, and Huckabee did the worst. The latest polls show Carson gaining; Trump holding steady; and basically everyone else staying right where they were including Bush. In my opinion, Jeb Bush is the ultimate loser because, like I wrote regarding the first debate, Bush needs to crush it and he was embarrassing to watch.
My 2016 prediction that I have been saying to friends is a Rubio/Kasich ticket – I still think Rubio will be on the ticket, either as the presidential candidate or the vice president. Kasich? Eh. Probably not. I saw a couple of people mention a Rubio/Fiorina ticket which is horrifying because that might be their best chance. Ultimately, I don’t think any of these candidates can win a general election against any of the Democratic field. 2016 will we determined by who goes to the polls.